Why Manipur is Burning?

There is no doubt that the present crises in Manipur was generated and acted upon at the behest of certain foreign agencies supported by the internal anarchists, fanatics and traitors. The opposition left not a second to blame the Centre and State Governments; Sonia Gandhi came out with a statement and her son rushed to Manipur with his message of Mohabbat. Some attributed this to the ban on drugs cultivation while others accused the Prime Minister of being in U.S. when rioting was on in Manipur. However, one needs to analyze historically the factors that led to this contemporary crisis which I look up on as an experimental ground for the anti-national communal fanatics ISI, China and the anarchists within to create a civil war in India.

Historically speaking, the Congress deliberately neglected the North-Eastern States of India since 1946. At the Meerut Congress Session in 1946 a Nagaland representative cautioned from the dais that the American missionaries were instigating the people not to join the Indian Union. To this Nehru's reply was that "The freedom struggle of India will not start from Nagaland." Why so? Nehru was known for his opposition to Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose and INA. It must be noted that the people of Manipur and Nagaland had strongly supported the INA. The Kukis, Meitis, Nagas and many other tribes considered Netaji as his king. It was at Moirang only that the Tricolour of Azad Hind Sarkar was hoisted and the Azad Hind Sarkar liberated more than 18,000 square miles of Indian land from the British. The Kukis, Meitis and Nagas had requested the INA not to withdraw as per the records available. And we all know Nehru's attitude who instead of remaining silent for he knew very well what the INA was fighting for, on the contrary toured Assam and declared that if Subhash Bose comes with the help of Japanese he will fight himself with a sword in his hand. The interim government of Nehru remained a moot spectator to the atrocities done on INA supporters in these regions after 1945. More than 90,000 Kukis, Metitis and Nagas had applied for the status for Freedom Fighters for their operational support to INA but the Prime Minister of Indian Dominion Nehru not only refused them but the Congress till 1972 did not recognize even the INA braves as Freedom Fighters. Netaji, however remained a popular leader in these states much to the annoyance of Nehru.

When the boundaries were being decided between the North-Eastern States and East Pakistan, but for Patel the Congress remained silent else even the Chakma Hills and Assam story would have been different.

In November 1949, Sardar Patel had warned Nehru about China's aggressive designs on India, particularly on the North-Eastern States. He had strongly pleaded for infrastructural development; to strengthen defence and win the confidence of the people. This again was totally ignored by Chao-En-Lies great friend Nehru for which India paid a heavy price in 1962. China created insurgency in these states and the crisis continued.

Another stupidity of the Congress Government was that they created an artificial division by treating the North-Eastern States as peripheral regions and Delhi as the main stream. I felt sick since childhood whenever I heard they have to join the mainstream for they were Indians and why this said. This fallacy is being undone today with every part of India and every citizen of India irrespective of any state or region is the main stream. This is something which the Congress cannot stomach under whose regimes corruption and siphoning of funds was the rampant practice.

The infrastructural developments in these states and strengthening of defences has not only un-nerved China but its Indian ally the Indian National Congress that has a secret treaty with the Chinese Community Party which they are not prepared to reveal. Along with this all kinds of left in India today looks at China as their Godfather- a so called communist dictatorship where citizens have no rights; which is the biggest money lender, land usurper and black mailer of nations world over. Here, we should not forget that terrorism against India was initiated initially by China with the arming of Naxalites and their brain washing. Pakistan, no doubt, followed suit later on. Hence, China is a major player in creating and instigating anarchy not only in Manipur but attempting that in all North-Eastern.

Successive Congress Governments not only failed to check the intruders from Bangladesh but I will say encouraged them to create their vote banks. The leftists too also did not lag behind in this. And now the TMC is the greatest player in this game in Bengal.

This led to massive demographic changes in population besides providing bases to the sleeping agents. And then came the Rohingiya intruders which made the entry of ISIS and Pakistani ISI in these regions with support from China.

The last nine years here witnessed a reversal of the Congress and left policies with the NDA Government ensuring infrastructural development, strengthening the defences and promoting the North-Eastern States very much as main stream India. Insurgency was replaced by peace the results came via elections which stunned the Congress when they found that the Christians too in these states voted heavily for NDA. This impact was the greatest shock for the Congress as its lust for power to install the dynastic prince as P.M. has no bounds.

Reasons being given that it is the ban on narcotics cultivation etc., no doubt, have a role but such steps were also taken to curb a parallel economy that is being run there by the foreign intruders with foreign support.

I am confident that the Indian state is capable in handling such insurgency with an iron hand and sustain the confidence of the people in the NDA. Lastly, I will put a word of caution as the divisive forces will leave no stone unturned to extend this experiment in other states of India in the coming months. We have to be cautious, alert and extend whatever we can do to our support the nationalist forces.

Writer- Prof. Kapil Kumar

source: https://twitter.com/ProfKapilKumar/status/1681998612975472640?t=fRLNmZvSxQw6CKjtWMTPJg&s=19

Quid Pro Quo: An instrument of strategic realignment in Indian Foreign Policy of the Modi era

The phrase of Quid pro Quo though used extensively in economic literature as ‘an agreement between two or more parties in which there is a reciprocal exchange of goods or services’, but here it is used to reflect some of the recent principles and policy positions which were taken by the Government of India, which has led to a strategic realignment of the Indian foreign policy in context to global issues.

Whether it is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, buying of discounted Russian oil despite western sanctions, engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan, or the closer defense relations with countries of the South China Sea, all of them are signs of realignment in New Delhi’s strategic consideration in context to global affairs. This departure from long-standing self-imposed idealism and underrated response to a more pragmatic and proactive response is noteworthy. Many Indian scholars who have welcomed this approach of policymakers publish a lot of literature in this regard. This internal realization of quid pro quo as the basis of a successful foreign policy is the foundation of a New India, a leader of the 21st-century global order.  

Along with this interest and issue-based strategic alignment of India with both west and the eastern powers, the realization of the importance of aggressive strategic communications both within the country and abroad to counter fake news & propaganda by our adversaries is the only way forward to meet the objectives our strategic autonomy in this highly polarized geopolitics. One can surely observe that India learned this hard way, after realizing that its ethnoreligious and regionist faultlines are easily exploitable. Whether it is Jihad in Kashmir or the CAA & Farm protests, each of these issues has highlighted how focused and targeted communication can lead to civil unrest and anarchy.

Both Pakistan and China have used the information domain as a ‘grey zone of warfare’ to augment their strategic objectives in countering a stronger India. In the case of Pakistan, this responsibility is undertaken by an Army-controlled institution, which is Inter-Services Public Relations, i.e, ISPR but in the case of China, this is more compartmentalized. They have different policies and institutions that carry out information warfare in different domains like foreign affairs, media, defense, etc.

Their tried and tested ‘wolf worrier diplomacy’ may be attributed to such aggressive and assertive diplomacy which has emboldened the power of China. But in recent times, this approach has yielded suboptimal and disastrous results on the global stage. The Chinese flagship global and multilateral initiatives like the OBOR are not only facing bottlenecks due to financial misappropriation of the Chinese banks and financial institutions but also a very severe opposition in the aligning and partner countries due to their ambiguous nature.

This core issue of mistrust in Chinese initiatives and deeds has been primarily due to its nefarious intention and not its tarnished image as a gross violator of Human Rights, especially in the case of Uyghur Muslims. Its growing ambitions in Indo-Pacific and sovereign claims on disputed territories like the area along the Line of Actual Control in Laddakh, Senkaku Islands of Japan, or the entire region of south china sea has seen a small but gradual push back from the respective countries where the escalation have been propelled by the Chinese Aggression.

Such unprovoked aggression with bandwagons of propaganda by the wolf worriers in the information space has led to a turnaround in the sentiments and goodwill of China. The countries have gradually realized this debt-trap enslavement of smaller and island nations is part of their strategy popularly dubbed the ‘Chinese Marshall Plan’. This doctrine of buying influence through developmental debts has resulted in critical attributions like ‘Modern-day Economic Imperialism of Communist China’ and whatnot. Many such strongly worded but true slurs have been barraged over china after the fallout of Covid-19 where its meek and conspicuous response lead to a continuum of catastrophe that ravaged the world. 

However, the counter-response of many countries against such a bullish approach may be a smidgen in the art of diplomacy but recently, the US took the lead to call out the bluff of Chinese threats and warmongering, when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went ahead with her visit to the Republic of China aka Taiwan. Despite a fierce campaign in media and military drills in Fujian Province (which is very close to Taiwanese Island), the visit happened and China was left red-faced.

A similar pushback was given by Indians too, not like one in Galwan but in Sri Lanka. There was a spat between Indian and Chinese diplomatic missions in Sri Lanka over the docking of the Yuan Wang 5 ship at Hambantota Port. Yuan Wang 5 is one of China’s latest generation space-tracking ships, used to monitor satellite, rocket, and intercontinental ballistic missile launches. India registered its diplomatic protest with Sri Lanka over its docking, but after much back and forth Lankans approved and Qi Zhenhong wrote a piece for Sri Lankan Guardian on the 26th of August titled “From One-China Principle to ‘Yuan Wang 5’: Let’s Join Hands and Resolutely Safeguard Our Sovereignty, Independence and Territorial Integrity”.

Without naming India directly, a lot of attributions were made to which a strong and befitting response was made by the mission’s Twitter handle, one such tweet stated, “Opaqueness and debt-driven agendas are now a major challenge, especially for smaller nations. Recent developments are a caution. Sri Lanka needs support, not unwanted pressure or unnecessary controversies to serve another country’s agenda.”

In Geopolitics war of words between nations is very common but here the important underpinning is the tone and tenner in which the rebuttal is given. This unusual shift from a dolloping response to a more cogitative and aggressive one has now become a new normal in the Modi Era of Indian diplomacy. Since 2014, the proactive approach towards the burgeoning issue of geopolitics has become a hallmark of the realignment in Indian Foreign policy that has made world powers accept India as a major player in almost all issues of global eminence.

This realignment of policies shaped around its practical viability for serving Indian interests, always and everywhere, with no compromise on sovereign and strategic matters, is a testament to India’s growing self-confidence in its own choices and capabilities.

Since Dr. Jaishankar took charge as India’s Foreign Minister, he has invigorated this resolve. His defense of India’s Oil purchases from Russia during the joint press conference of the 2+2 ministerial dialogue in Washington DC is nothing short of setting the tone which resonates with India’s First Doctrine. His honest way of outrightly speaking unvarnished truth about India’s position on various issues has undergirded the trustworthiness of Indian commitments and policies.

The fundamental difference between China’s wolf worrier approach and India’s assertive diplomacy is clarity, ingenuity, honesty, and reliability. It is due to these inherent and characteristic differences, India’s Strategic Realignment with various bilateral and multilateral groupings based on the quid pro quo principle has been successful where its strategic autonomy to charter its course has remained the same.

Though challenges exist especially in the information space which leaves a gateway of ‘grey zone warfare’ but a persistent realization and adequate policy revision may give the desired objectives of a New India.

Writer’s Bio:

Hrithik Singh (also known by the pen name Gaurav Rajmohan Narayan Singh), an acclaimed Debater, a Writer, a Poet and a Blogger. He is the Vice-President of a student led NGO Embryonic Foundation, Lucknow. As a debater, he has taken part and been meritorious in many Formal Summits, Youth Parliaments and Model United Nations, including the prestigious National Youth Parliament, organized by the Government of India. Along with this, he even participated in various events like Yuva-Sammelan of Vivekananda Youth Forum (organized by Ramkrishna Mission, Indore, 2018) and Vishwa Hindi Sammelan (Bhopal, 2015) organized in the field of Social Service and Hindi Literature. He still continues to devote himself to his concept of nation-building and has been frequently writing on the issues of international relations and economics. Currently, he has finished his undergraduate degree in Economics and an Advance Diploma in Functional Hindi and Journalism from Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi.

Indian Conviction Of the "Akhand Bharat"

After the abrogation of Article 370, eyes look and ponder upon POK. In the parliament, Home Minster Amit Shah stated in his speech, "Kashmir is an integral part of India, there is no doubt over it. When I talk about Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan occupied Kashmir and Aksai Chin are included in it." When on this, opposition leaders deemed the minister was getting “worked up”. Shah hit back saying he was “ready to die for it."

"Akhand Bharat" the agenda of ruling government of India. It won't be fulfilled without occupying and including POK. Akhand Bharat is not a just political rather cultural concept. Recently, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh also said, “PoK is currently occupied by Pakistan and not even a single family is left without losses. They contributed a lot to the development of the country, PoK refugees should get full justice. They are looking up to India. We can’t forget that Baba Amarnath is here. How can Mata Sharada be there?”

The intentions of people seating in the government is very clear about POK and, there is no doubt everyone wants POK back. But fact of the matter is out willingness and how much we are prepared for it? This not a movie or a game, this is, albeit an ideological battelfield but blood is very much spilled, soldier martyr, people die. It is a popular belief that you have to lose something to get something. Here, it is the same thing - without sacrifice you are not going to get anything.

Indian Government, though seemingly looking of the right time has forgotten by the time "the right time" arrives, we would have then lost thousands of people fallen victim to the wrongdoings & brutality of Pakistani Army. Even now, in the name of CPEC, China is openly exploiting Balochistan. Baloch activists and human rights defenders have raised their voice against the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and, termed it as a project of looting and plundering of natural wealth of Balochistan. A few days ago Protest held outside Pak Embassy in London against "fake encounters" in Balochistan. The protest was called by the Baloch National Movement, demanding Pakistan to end its unlawful and inhumane occupation of Balochistan. As per the dossier, Pakistan have adopted a campaign to pick-torture-kill Balochs who are fighting for their rights. In only five years, 41,000 women have disappeared in Balochistan, the largest province - geographically - in Pakistan. As many as 22,600 Baloch people disappeared in 2020 and 366 were killed in 2021. This year, so far, 75 Balochs have been already killed by the security forces of Pakistan. On March 17, the Human Rights Council of Balochistan claimed that 480 people were made forcibly to disappear and 177 were killed in the province during 2020. The report also claims that over 15,000 children have been enslaved by the security forces in Balochistan. Pakistan has been carrying out massive military operations in Balochistan. To simply term it, "It's one of the worst genocide in human history."

Chinese have their own agenda of expansion policy. Sources said that Chinese engineers are not only working on the CPEC , they are also involved in defence projects for the Pakistan Army in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), Balochistan and Sindh. About 10-12 Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) personnel have been spotted at Sharda, in POK. Indian government needs to and should take strict action with all their force and power. Only talking and winning at diplomatic level is not efficient, the need to showing off the millitary power is ever so growing. This is the matter of our motherland and, we can't tolerate it and just to find ourselves repeating the mistake of Nehru Era. There is a possibility of heavy inflitration via PoK. Chinese soldiers have been spotted active in the Sindh and the restive Balochistan areas, are building storage facilities in man-made caves in different areas. These facilities have been spotted in Ranikot in Sind, along the Sehwan-Hyderabad highway, about 50 km from Nawabshah, the nearest big town. Similar constructions have been reported in Khuzdar, in central Balochistan, where a missile regiment is located. This is ever so dangerous & government can not sit close-mouthed his on such type of activities from the Chinese PLA's.

Nowadays, what we've been seeing is killing of apple traders and drivers from outside the state ferrying apple crop, preventing shops from opening, the threatening the children away from schools... all this, is nothing but a part of narrative of the terrorists. Increase in target killing of Kashmiri Hindus, leading to migration and fleeing. Terrorists are also targeting labourers who have come to Jammu and Kashmir from outside states to create fear among them and disrupt trade. Our Armed forces have been doing a great job, teaching them lessons, killing many terrorists within a year. But, at the same time, so many casualties takes place. The simple agenda of Pakistan is to train youth in the name Islamic Jihad, making them a near perfect militant, physically & mentally trained, sharply inflitrate India to further spread Jihad and, Chinese PLAs are helps them, who themselves killed Uiger Muslims in their own country. 

Like 1971, we have to focus on the make use something solid, like a "Mukti Bahini". Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) is, proven, perfect example of it. We have to support them, provide them with arms and ammunition, belive or not they target both, the Pakistani and the Chinese PLAs army. They show no mercy upon them, because they see the heavy rainfall of their own blood. In front of them, their mother, sister and women are mercilessly raped by the Pakistani army, killings of thousands of brothers, will surely make them want to take revenge.

I think that the country’s armed forces were fully prepared for any eventuality, including possible action in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), given, if the government clears it. There is need of Political will of Government. Our armed forces are always in the complete state of preparedness. We can not raise the question on the intention Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he is a proven great personality known extesively, for his decision making beyond the comprehension of the World. Whether you go back to surigical strike in Mayanmar or after Uri, it shows & proves the strong and powerful leadership of the Modi. We can see it becoming ever so clear when after the Pulwama attack the Air strike that was carried by the Indain Airforce in which estimated 250- 300 terrorist were killed in POK. The Abrogation of article 370 in was made to happen in the Modi Era. We can never forget, how he unfurled the Tiranga(tricolour) at Lal Chowk in 1992 . He is man of his word. Modi ji, though maintaining to keep his silence on PoK, has shown through his actions, that we must hope that government has a “special strategy” for Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, which will be executed and such things are not discussed in public.

Writer’s Bio: 

Shivam Kumar Pandey is a writer, poet and Blogger. He is Graduated in Economics and Advance Diploma in Computer Application from Banaras Hindu University. He used to write several issues related to Defence ,political and economy. He is a Nationalist thinker whose articles poem or story always devoted to his dear motherland. Currently he pursuing his MA Economics from University of Allahabad.

FROM THE EDITOR DESK

Hello dear friend and colleagues hope you all are fine. This is my new Blog SARTHAK VARTALAP.  Here we try to Focus on Economy, Foreign Affairs, Geopolitics and National Security to the common Indian. We are small team with a big dream.  This is not easy for us to survive in the Era of 21st century a age of Internet where the information spread like the spead of light. There is so many news websites, channels and others meadia platform but we do something different and innovative. We do hardwork for the readers specially for the youths Students  who always misguided by false news related to Geopolitics.

Here we unfolding the layer of truth and bring reality in front of you.  All our articles are written by subject matter experts, individuals with tremendous public credibility and decades of relevant experience. Diplomats, Generals, Academicians, Analysts and PhD scholars.

And you, dear reader, have honoured us by reading and quoting those articles.

We hope that one day SARTHAK VARTALAP become number one and favourite of everyone. We also  launch a this website in other languages also such as Marathi,Tamil Telgu, Malyalam Odiya etc. As I said that Small team with a big dream. 

अभी हम दो टके है कल दो डॉलर के होंगे

फिलहाल कुछ नही है कल बहुत कुछ होंगे.

At this time  Hindi you can read RASHTRACHINTAK.

Thanks to everyone who join and with us in our wonderful journey. This is the beginning and who knows the future? 

ख्वाहिशों का पुलिंदा 

बांध कर चला हूं 

मै सपनों को पूरा करने 

सारी रुकावटों को मात देते हुए 

अब मंजिल तक जरूर पहुचूंगा 

अपनी पहचान जिंदा रखते हुए !

 

~SHIVAM KUMAR PANDEY

 EDITOR- IN - CHIEF

SARTHAK VARTALAP 

India 2030: A Decade of Challenges and Opportunities

At the dawn of the year 2020, when India entered the gates of newer opportunities, nobody had the slightest clue of what would go down in history as a challenging yet eventful road, in which India would be faced with the bewilderment of impending crises, one after another. The challenges were destined to test India’s resilience and patience to an extent like never before.

With the beginning of the new decade, India struggled on the economic front as the Indian economy entered into a slowdown, registering growth of a mere 4% in FY 2019-20[1] Much of this slowdown was a cumulative effect of the demonetization and implementation of the GST (Goods and Services Tax). This further went in negative as India went into complete lockdown during March–April of 2020, posting a contraction of 7.3%.[2] As a follow-up effect, the lockdown resulted in the unemployment rate increasing from 5.27% in 2019 to 7.11% in 2020[3] when compared on a year-over-year basis. This was accompanied by declined growth of 9.6% in the industrial sector where construction contracted by 12.6%, followed by mining at 12.4%. The services sector too had a contraction of 8.8%, with trade and hospitality shrinking by 21.4%.[4] A lot of uncertain events in the global economy like Brexit, unstable oil prices, supply-side bottlenecks for critical industries like auto, etc. impacted the overall investor sentiment. Auto and construction especially faced demand shortages, leading to retrenchment.

Meanwhile, on January 30th, 2020, India reported its first COVID-19 virus case in Kerala, leading to 3.31 crores infected and 4.41 lakh deceased and counting in the two waves that followed. A country that spends less than 1.5% (before 2021–22 budget) of its union budget on health was faced with the enormous task of protecting 1.3 billion people from an unstoppable pandemic. Many Western media predictions stated that an impending breakdown of all services seemed inevitable. But all the prophecies were thrown away with the response that the government of India adopted proactively. The timely lockdown for 21 days and its further extensions helped India move from a net importer of PPE and N95 masks to a leading exporter today. India also supported its neighbours and friends in the international community with a supply of essential medicines as grants or aid. India’s strong and resilient pharmaceutical sector contributed the much-needed supply of essential medicines at home and abroad, which helped India gain a lot of goodwill and appreciation. The widely debated lockdown in March and April 2020 laid a critical foundation for India’s preparedness, helping it to develop critical infrastructure. This helped the government to steer the nation and glide safely out of catastrophe in the first wave, but the negligence on the part of states resulted in the devastation of the second wave.

However, the extent of the second wave was still relatively low in comparison to other affected countries like the US, which has a 198 per million death rate in comparison to 38 per million in India. India also developed its own home-grown Covaxin and the Serum Institute of India’s Covishield (licensed by Oxford-AstraZeneca) firsthand, a feat that only a handful of countries have accomplished. Since then, two more vaccines have joined—Sputnik V (which will be manufactured by Dr. Reddy's Lab) and Zydus Cadila’s ZyCov-D vaccine. There are reports that more vaccines are in the approval stage. Since the beginning of vaccination in January 2021, India is one of the fastest countries to vaccinate its citizens, with 71 crore doses administered so far and continuing.

India also faced a deadly skirmish witnessed after four decades at the LAC (Line of Actual Control) on multiple locations stretching from Depsang Plains, Gogra-Hot Springs, Galwan, and Pangong Tso. On the June 15, 2020, a skirmish on PP14 led to the death of Colonel Santosh Babu (posthumously MVC) along with 19 of his brave soldiers. This test of relations was significant as India responded in kind with mirror deployment and aggressive posturing. Though the disengagement on borders is an ongoing issue, the strategic response both at the tactical level on the ground and the high tables of foreign affairs severely dented China’s invincible image. In a follow-up response, India not only banned Chinese applications and companies from participating in government projects, but also rallied support against China over its growing assertiveness in many international forums. India’s willingness and shared determination to engage itself in the Indo-Pacific through QUAD and other forums has resulted in sending a task force to the South China Sea, which reflects a change in policy to challenge China on its turf.

These are some of the many challenges that India faced, but its indomitable spirit, confidence, and will to fight prevailed. Despite aspersions over its abilities to handle situations, India’s mature and proactive response towards the issues both at home and abroad is a paradigm shift from its inward-looking approach. India’s active role in the issue of Afghanistan by engaging with its partners for a comprehensive and just solution of peace and stability is widely acknowledged, which of course irks Pakistan. India’s active engagement is reflected by the Indian External Affairs Minister’s visit to the US, where he made various stopovers in Europe and also engaged with Middle Eastern and Central Asian republics. This was followed by the visits to India of CIA Director, William J. Burns, MI6 Chief Richard Moore, and Russian NSA Nikolay Patrushev holding talks with the Indian NSA Ajit Doval in just a week’s time. The involvement of Pakistan in the internal affairs of Afghanistan has increased security challenges for India. The Taliban’s flip-flopping statements on Kashmir is a new dimension in which one has to look carefully.

With so many issues at the onset of a new decade, it is important to see how the world and India itself think about its challenges and opportunities. As for economic prowess, the outlook for India is very optimistic. Despite the challenges of the second wave, India registered a growth of 20.1% in Q1 of FY 2021–22. Government, as well as estimates from rating agencies like Morgan Stanley, pegs GDP growth at 10.5% for FY 2021–22.[5] If all goes well, a McKinsey paper predicts that India could be having the third-largest number of high-income households by 2030 behind China and the US. The paper predicts that India can contribute about 1.8 trillion USD as total consumption growth in the world.[6] This puts India into the top three economies in the world by 2030, a dream that India has chased since its 1991 post-liberalization. Multiple reports and predictions highlight the fact that concrete developments, bold policy decisions, higher economic integration by removing bottlenecks in supply, along with the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan (Self-Reliant India campaign), a government investment of 29 lakh crores as an economic recovery package, have laid a strong foundation for Indian recovery and subsequent growth. With many policy decisions like the Gati Shakti Initiative where 100 lakh crores will be spent on infrastructure, the announcement of two dedicated defense corridors, 1.75 lakh crores of a disinvestment plan of government PSUs and assets, the National Infrastructure Pipeline, the railway overhaul, the Bharatmala and Sagarmala Projects and many more have been earmarked for the coming decade, which is surely a good mix for a host of opportunities and accomplishments in the near future. The increased spending on infrastructure will lure investment, increase employment, and boost India’s industry and exports. The government’s push for ‘atmanirbharta’ for defense is also a rightful and needed step to strengthen the indigenization of weapon systems. This will help in laying a strong foundation for defense infrastructure. The new defense procurement policy, FDI increase from 49–74% from the direct route, and production-linked incentives for MSMEs producing defense equipment are a good head start for long-term benefits for the defense sector. This will thereby reduce dependence on imports.

Health and education, the sector that suffers the most, will also see a renewed emphasis and approach from the government. We already saw an exponential rise in the health budget in the 2021–22 fiscal year along with the statement of intent by the government to improve the rural health sector with Pradhanmantri Atmanirbhar Swasth Bharat Yojana (PMANSBY). The action plan presented to fight future pandemics and health emergencies will surely diversify the health sector in both R&D and innovation. The National Education Policy (NEP) will also be a game-changer reform in the education sector, whose performance will determine the direction of atmanirbharta.

However, from the merry symphony resonating with the hymns of economic prosperity, much of India’s image as the superpower next door will face geopolitical challenges posed by assertive China and the rise of radical Islamic terrorism in Afghanistan. Since 2020, China has changed three commanders of the Western Theater Command (WTC) of the PLA that looks over a 3,400 km border with India. Recently, China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) promoted Lt. Gen. Wang Haijiang as four-star General and appointed him as the new commander of Western Theater Command. The reports say he has been handpicked by Xi Jinping. He is one of the youngest generals in the PLA and has been the commander of the Xinjiang and Tibetan military districts before. This change of three commanders in WTC within a year is a signal of something tenuous. This change of command happened after Xi’s rabble-rousing visit to Tibet and some close border areas of Arunachal Pradesh. This change of command indicates that the commanders failed to deliver on the dictates of CMC’s ambition over the Sino-Indian border. It is imperative for our security establishment to be prepared for any implications of Chinese surprises on the border. In another surprise event, China’s outreach to Myanmar’s junta led to the revival of the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (KPSEZ) and a deep-sea port project that emerges as a challenge for Indian-built Sittwe Port given the geographical proximity between the two ports.[7] China’s growing influence is a matter of concern given that the Malacca Dilemma of the Chinese gives many strategic edges to India. In the coming decade, India has to consider options beyond QUAD to effectively counter the ‘string of pearls’ for which maritime and security cooperation between ASEAN and East Asian countries is crucial to keeping China at bay. The participation of HAL in Malaysia’s tender for 18 fighter jets, a line of credit to the Philippines for the BrahMos system, and talks with Vietnam on similar arrangements over BrahMos are some of the steps in this direction but expeditious efforts are required to expand Indian defense exports in the region, which will aptly calibrate our security equation with China.

One aspect that will underscore the attention of India for the decade is the maritime domain. While our policy remains focused on land boundaries, much of the security challenges have developed in the seas. India’s naval power projection is very limiting, while China has been expanding its influence in this sphere. Today, the Chinese have two aircraft carriers and an army of 70 submarines in which 7 are SSBN and 12 are SSN. Along with this, they have more destroyers, frigates, corvettes, and seaplanes that give them the capability to operate in the Indian Ocean region without much resistance. The Indian Navy, in contrast, has one aircraft carrier, one SSBN, no SSN at the moment (as the lease of the INS Chakra–II is expiring), and 15 conventional submarines along with destroyers, frigates, corvettes, and seaplanes, which are not sufficient to deal with maritime challenges posed by China. The Indian Navy is formidable in its own right and turf, however, when compared with the Chinese PLA-N, its capacity to project India’s influence and maritime dominance is limiting. At present, the Indian Navy has about 150 ships and submarines[8] while the PLA-N has 360 ships and submarines[9] and by the end of 2030 the gap between the two will increase. Hence, policymakers must realize the reality of this domain and identify areas where India can strengthen its maritime power.

One cannot deny the fact that containing China will be the cornerstone for India’s diplomacy but the new developments in Afghanistan with the Taliban’s takeover have complications that will draw much of the attention as this issue concerns national security. Though to call what happened on the August 15, 2021 as the end game of Afghanistan is too early to say. However, if things remain as they are, then the Taliban in Afghanistan will have consequences for India’s security and interest in the region.

It is not only the North-South transport corridor that is pivotal for connectivity in Central Asia but the Taliban takeover has cast an implicative shadow over peace in Jammu and Kashmir. As the dust settles, the focus of the Taliban will shift towards Kashmir. The persistent involvement of ISI in the Taliban regime is proven by the fact that the Haqqanis have the major share of power. These puppets of ISI will now call the shots in the Taliban’s regime. The diversion of these jihadists towards Kashmir will happen, for which the early signs have emerged. It is in the interest of India to engage with the Taliban while devising a comprehensive strategy to put consistent pressure on the Taliban. This can be achieved by either supporting the NRF or by engaging with key players like the US, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. These countries can help India keep a lid on the Taliban’s emboldened progress that threatens India’s security.

In the sphere of foreign policy, the growing confidence of India at the high tables of diplomacy is something that will grow further. As Chinese assertiveness in the geopolitical environment will challenge countries, India will be the only reliable partner and alternative. The revision of the UK’s foreign policy which focuses more on the Indo-Pacific,[10] France’s growing interest in IOR, and the revival of Free Trade Agreement negotiations with India by the EU[11] are a few of the early signs of what will be an eventful decade, where India will be at the center of geopolitical discourse. No major powers in global politics can circumvent India, as their interests converge with the holistic approach of India’s foreign policy. In issues like climate change, cybersecurity, terrorism, artificial intelligence, space, freedom of navigation, international law, economy, and fair trade, the world has to engage with India, as in many of these issues it leads by example.

So, in conclusion, one can say that the road to 2030 is eventful, where India has to carefully craft its policy, both foreign and domestic. Defense and national security will have a paramount focus but has to also adjust to the changing realities. Fifth-generation hybrid warfare is a challenge that will confront India both at home and abroad. To fight this non-kinetic way of war waged by our adversaries, counter-information and narrative building is the way forward. This requires a consistent flow of rightful information so that the common populace is protected from these attempts. This requires government support and the support of think tanks, civil societies, and individuals from academia. We have to also understand the fact that one cannot be dependent on moral values and ethos when the adversary is at your gates. It is a game where only hardcore interests of the countries converge and this convergence leads to compromise and compromise leads to mutual benefit. It is on this principle that the world moves on and so should we if we have a hope and belief to succeed in the coming decade. As Franklin D. Roosevelt said, “We have always held to the hope, the belief, the conviction that there is a better life, a better world, beyond the horizon.” Guided by our similar ethos, we all are hopeful that we will make an Atmanirbhar Bharat a reality and a way forward in 2030 and the 21st century.

Hrithik Singh (also known by the pen name Gaurav Rajmohan Narayan Singh), is a debater, writer, poet and blogger. He is the Vice President of the student-led NGO Embryonic Foundation in Lucknow, India. As a debater, he has taken part and been meritorious in many Formal Summits, Youth Parliaments and Model United Nations, including the prestigious National Youth Parliament organized by the Government of India. Along with this, he even participated in various events like Yuva-Sammelan of Vivekananda Youth Forum (organized by Ramkrishna Mission, Indore, 2018) and Vishwa Hindi Sammelan (Bhopal, 2015) organized in the field of Social Service and Hindi Literature. He continues to devote himself to his concept of nation building and frequently writes on the issues of international relations and economy. Currently, he has finished his undergraduate degree in Economics and an Advance Diploma in Functional Hindi and Journalism from Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi.